Airpocalypse and China's Efforts to Curb Pollution

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Source: Telegraph
In August 2015, Berkeley Earth, an NGO focused on monitoring climate science, calculated that 1.6 million deaths per year in China can be attributed to air pollution, accounting for approximately 17% of all deaths.[1] Researchers found that in the most polluted regions, average daily exposure is 52 micrograms of PM2.5 (a pollutant that measures less than 2.5 microns and can accumulate in the respiratory system) per unit of cubed air-the daily-equivalent to smoking 40 cigarettes. Studies have shown that daily exposure to just 5 micrograms of PM2.5 per unit of cubed air can increase the risk of developing heart problems by 13 percent.[2]
 
Air pollution is particularly dangerous for children with developing lungs, the elderly and people with asthma, heart disease or chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD).[3] In 2004, a landmark study published in the New England Journal of Medicine indicated that children raised in poor air quality environments suffered significant losses in lung function and development.
 
In the middle of the 20th century Southern California also experienced similar problems with managing air pollution. In 1947, Los Angeles initiated its first air pollution control program with the aim to combat the photochemical smog that had engulfed the city. However, it would take decades for LA, and the United States, to take measures to address the preeminent source of pollution-automobiles. Despite strong consensus within the scientific community in as early as the 1950s that hydrocarbon emission from car tailpipes turned into smog, the automobile industry dismissed it as a problem stemming from LA’s unique geography.[4] In the 1960s, Californians began to organize some of the nation’s first protests to improve the environment, pushing politicians to acknowledge the crisis. It was not until the introduction of the Clean Air Act and the technological improvements in the 60s and 70s that air quality began improving.
 
Over the past decade, similar fervor has spurred the growth of grassroots environmental movement in China. During this period, about 100 environmental NGOs and 200 student environmental associations have formed. A survey conducted by Dutch research agency Motivation reports that 64 percent of Chinese identify as environmentalists. A 2015 Pew survey indicated that approximately three fourths of Chinese cited air pollution and water pollution as big problems. This overwhelmingly populist sentiment was reinvigorated this past March as 200 million out of the 600 million Chinese with internet access viewed “Under the Dome,” a documentary about China’s air pollution crisis before censors banned it[5]. Narrated by Chai Jing, a well-known former reporter at China Central Television, the documentary has also garnered overwhelming attention from the government. The day after the film was posted online, Chen Jinling, the minister of environmental protection, dubbed it China’s “Silent Spring” moment. A week later in an address to the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang would highlight environmental pollution as a top priority.
 
In its war against pollution, China is pursuing more aggressive measures to combatting climate change. It is currently the world’s largest investor in renewable energy. China has announced that it will launch a national emissions trading scheme, commonly referred to as cap-and-trade program, in 2017.[6] In the system, large emitters, including power plants and manufactures, will be allocated credits for an allowable amount of pollution. These credits can be bought and sold among different corporations, incentivizing them to reduce their carbon footprint.

The government has taken a heavy top down approach to phasing out older coal power factories for cleaner alternatives. However, officials have acknowledged that there still is a gap between the public ire against smog and the government’s efforts to clean up the environment.

The transition will not occur without challenges. The RAND Corporation has estimated that the cost of shifting from coal for both heating and power generation could cost up to $160 billion annually. However, it is also estimated that between 2000 and 2010 the economic costs associated with air pollution, driven by health consequences and loss of productivity, were approximately 6.5% of China’s gross domestic product and will continue to grow as the population becomes more urbanized. On the heels of the newly disclosed data that coal consumption has been 17% higher than the government previously disclosed and that north-eastern cities were enveloped by some of the worst levels of smog on record, environmentalists say that China is now at a tipping point.[7] “The development and growth model of the last 35 years has been increasingly dependent on energy and pollution-intensive industries, but how can we go on growing all these sectors every year with double digits?” says Ma Jun, China’s most well-known environmentalist and a member of TIME 100 most influential persons in 2006. “I think it is time to change and balance the environment and growth. If we don’t do that we’re going to suffer a hard landing one day very soon.”

Long term goals should focus on replacing coal-fired power generation with renewable or nuclear power. Halting the issuing of new permits for coal-fired power plants could be implemented in the immediate future. Permits for plant construction in regions that are already at overcapacity should be canceled. Greenpeace reported that China has already reached severe overcapacity in coal powered generation and that electric production from coal has not increased since 2011. However, in 2015 the Ministry of Environmental Protection and provincial Environmental Protection Bureaus have given positive permitting decisions for 155 coal-fired power plants. Approximately 50% of China’s GDP is taken up by investment spending on power plants, factories, real estate and infrastructure.[8] With leadership encouraging banks to increase lending for capital investments, there is a risk that capital is wasted on polluting infrastructure instead of promoting China’s transition to sustainable energy. To promote public health, maintain political stability and sustain economic growth, the government must continue investing in hydroelectric, wind power, solar photovoltaic power and smart grid technologies and pass legislation that limits carbon emissions.
 

References
[1] Rohde, Robert A., and Richard A. Muller. "Air pollution in China: Mapping of concentrations and Sources." PloS one 10, no. 8 (2015): e0135749
[2] Cesaroni, Giulia, Francesco Forastiere, Massimo Stafoggia, Zorana J. Andersen, Chiara Badaloni, Rob Beelen, Barbara Caracciolo et al. "Long term exposure to ambient air pollution and incidence of acute coronary events: prospective cohort study and meta-analysis in 11 European cohorts from the ESCAPE Project." BMJ 348 (2014): f7412.
[3] Lelieveld, J., J. S. Evans, M. Fnais, D. Giannadaki, and A. Pozzer. "The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale." Nature 525, no. 7569 (2015): 367-371.
[4] Gardner, Sarah. "LA Smog: The Battle against Air Pollution." LA Smog: The Battle against Air Pollution. July 14, 2014. http://www.marketplace.org/topics/sustainability/we-used-be-china/la-smog-battle-against-air-pollution.
[5] Gardner, Daniel. "China’s ‘Silent Spring’ Moment? Why ‘Under the Dome’ Found a Ready Audience in China." The New York Times, March 18, 2015.
[6] Magill, Bobby. "China Announces World’s Largest Cap and Trade Program." China Announces World's Largest Cap and Trade Program. September 15, 2015. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/china-announces-cap-and-trade-program-19496.
[7] Levitt, Tom. "Ma Jun: China Has Reached Its Environmental Tipping Point." May 19, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/may/19/ma-jun-china-has-reached-its-environmental-tipping-point.
[8] Myllyvirta, Lauri. "Is China Doubling down on Its Coal Power Bubble?" November 11, 2015. http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/publications/reports/climate-energy/climate-energy-2015/doubling-down/.

David Shou is a graduate of Duke University and an NIH Academy Fellow at the National Institute of Health.