Xi Dreams of a Red China
How the “Chinese Dream” provides insight into China’s changing identity – and the global implications

Picture
Source: Bloomberg
Note: The views expressed in this piece are of the author's alone, and do not reflect the views of the US Air Force or the Department of Defense.

​
Shortly after coming to power in November 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping shared his conceptualization of the “Chinese Dream." This generalized articulation of what the Chinese people aspire to foreshadows what China seeks domestically, as well as the role it intends to play on the world stage. In order to understand these concepts, it is imperative to understand the Chinese Dream, as well as what it says about the changing nature of the Chinese government and society.  

The China Dream draws a strong connection with the American Dream, but is nonetheless very unique in its own right. It is impossible to understand the nature of this aspiration without placing the Chinese Dream in its rightful historical context. To do so, one can simply look to where it was first unveiled to the Chinese public. The venue at which President Xi gave his speech was an exhibition in Beijing which displayed images from China’s “Century of Humiliation.”[4] The first storyline at the exhibit extolled that from the end of the First Opium War (1839-1842) to the Chinese Communist Party’s acquisition of power in 1949, China had suffered countless humiliations at the hands of foreign powers.[2] But starting in 1949, the Chinese government asserts, the CCP has been the crucial force propagating the resurgence of China as a major world power.[2] In Xi’s version of the Chinese Dream, the CCP is the locomotive that pulls the Chinese people forward towards prosperity and development.

The Chinese Dream as a concept appears to be a social contract between the Chinese Communist Party and the 1.4 billion people of 56 ethnicities who make up China’s population. According to Xi, the plan requires the sacrifice and commitment of the Chinese people, and promises effective leadership on the part of the CCP, which will “solve all the country’s problems.”[2] President Xi Jinping asserts that “One can only do well when one’s country and nation do well,” implying that it will take cooperation from all parts of society to achieve this “China Dream.”[2] Xi unveiled a “100 Year Plan,” which started in 1949 and will continue until 2049. By 2021, the government aims for an average per capita income of $10,000 and for 60% of the population to be in cities.[2] According to this plan, by 2049, China will overcome the difficulties of poverty, pollution, corruption, ethnic conflict, and will realize the Chinese Dream.[2] But what comes next?

In name, China is a Socialist Republic. But the reality is much more complicated. “Socialism with Chinese characteristics,” as articulated by former leader Deng Xiaoping, is a system with many of the trappings of a market-oriented, capitalist economy, minus a few features, like massive state-owned enterprises. However, the Chinese Communist Party retains the authoritarian components of its version of Socialism.[1] Although the CCP may be an authoritarian regime, is it not a misnomer if Communist ideology is not at the heart of the party’s political agenda? What seems to be taking place is a transition away from Socialist policies towards a more secular version of competent authoritarianism. One could call this a “developmental dictatorship,” similar to what South Korea and Taiwan once experienced.[1] One potential issue that the CCP will have to face though is the fact that increasing per capita income and a growing middle class is often attributed to the increasing demands for democratic rule and greater personal freedoms.[6] South Korea began its transition to democracy in 1987 and Taiwan in 1986, once each had achieved moderate economic success. It has yet to be determined whether or not China will follow a similar path. One might think not until at least 2049, since this is when Xi’s 100 Year Plan ends.

Although Chinese Socialism seems to be lacking in many of the trappings of Socialism, it seems that the Chinese people care less for Communist dogma and more for an increasing quality of life. In fact, according to the 2004 National China Inequality and Distributive Justice Survey, the Chinese people are fairly warm to the idea of market-oriented capitalism.[5] There is no room here to go into the finite details of this fairly extensive survey, but a few questions are broadly indicative of overall results. When asked what they thought of the statement “The good thing about market competition is that it inspires people to work hard and be creative,” 62.5% agreed or strongly agreed, with only 5% disagreeing (the rest were neutral).[5] When asked if self-interest benefits society, 13.8% disagreed, while 42.6% agreed.[5] When asked if a free market is crucial to development, 5.4% disagreed, while 53.8% agreed.[5] The Chinese Dream seems to be more concerned with the economic and societal advancement that Deng Xiaoping advocated for rather than the fierce adherence to asceticism and egalitarianism that Mao propounded.[5]

The main question we’re left with is this: could President Xi’s much more secular sounding Chinese Dream be the foundation for a new conceptual structure that turns away from Socialism and focuses more on competent governance? This new ideational framework seems to be a step away from the era of Mao into the direction of legitimacy derived from competent governance and economic development. One could even say this is indicative of the Chinese government becoming more like pre-1911 Imperial China and less like post-1949 “Red China”.[4] In Chinese history, the Mandate of Heaven indicated that the emperor or empress was fit to govern and had the backing of Heaven. A loss of the Mandate could be demonstrated by famines, floods, barbarian raids, and was usually followed by the sovereign being ousted from power. In a similar way, the Chinese Dream is a new rendition of the Mandate of Heaven. If the Party rules well, it will hold the Mandate. Otherwise, it might face popular unrest, such as in 1989 when economic turbulence caused agitation for democratic reforms.

The people of China as well as the world have much to benefit from the Chinese Dream. Over recent decades, hundreds of millions of Chinese have been brought out of poverty, and China has been a major catalyst to economic growth worldwide. China has provided world markets with cheap products for consumption, has been a major consumer of natural resources, a growing source of foreign direct investment, and has been a titan of infrastructure development worldwide. In addition, China can do much to further contribute to the Global War on Terror, anti-piracy operations, and other security operations. This was evinced recently when President Xi announced that China will be contributing 8,000 more troops to a UN standby peacekeeping force, and that it would contribute $100 million in military assistance to the African Union.[3] China’s desire to re-achieve its former status as a major global leader can have many positive results for the world, but it also has the worrying potential for negative consequences as well.

One area of great concern is the increase in Chinese nationalism.[4] Nationalistic rhetoric, although an excellent way to garner support for the current regime, can easily spiral out of control. In recent years, Chinese and Japanese politicians have gained much from taking aim at one another.[1]  Anti-Japanese rhetoric, land reclamation in the South China Sea, and alleged cyber-attacks against the United States and Japan can be seen as a component of the Chinese Dream. This is because these actions have strengthened China’s geopolitical position vis-à-vis these powers. This leads to an important question. Can China become strong without disrupting the current global order? A strong and confident China should not be feared, but a China that seeks to alter the modus vivendi of world politics could prove destabilizing.[4] This is not to say that China should not pursue positive alterations to the global political structure, such as with its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, or its “One Belt, One Road” initiative. The issue is that when China steps, the world shakes. China must remain cognizant of how its actions are perceived. For example, its staunch claims to the South China Sea and its military modernization cause many of China’s smaller neighbors to cast worrisome glances at Beijing’s growing economic and military influence. Beijing must understand how these positive as well as arguably negative steps cause mixed perceptions of the Middle Kingdom.

China’s development will be the largest and most important factor of the 21st century. The critical question that needs to be answered is: if the Chinese Dream is successful and the people become wealthier, how will China’s population react? It seems that there are three options. The people could choose to take the path of South Korea, Indonesia, Brazil, and many other nations, demanding democratic transition.[1] A second potential course is that they will be content to trade freedom for economic progress. A third option could be to have limited democratic reforms, such as can be seen in Singapore.

Whichever path China takes, one thing is for certain. The Chinese Dream cannot be the articulation of just one man, or even the Party at large. It is the multifold aspirations of 1.4 billion people. Dreams are organic and individualistic, and cannot be dictated top-down. It is important for the world to strive to understand the Chinese Dream, but it is perhaps even more crucial that Xi and the CCP do the same.



References
 
[1] Beeson, Mark. Regionalism and Globalization in East Asia: Politics, Security and Economic Development. Basingstoke [England: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007.
[2] Carlson, Benjamin. "The World According to Xi Jinping." The Atlantic. September 21, 2015. Accessed October 3, 2015.
[3] "China's Xi Says to Commit 8,000 Troops for U.N. Peacekeeping Force." Reuters. September 28, 2015. Accessed October 3, 2015.
[4] "Xi Jinping and the Chinese Dream." The Economist. May 4, 2013. Accessed October 3, 2015.
[5] Whyte, Martin. “Fair versus unfair: How do Chinese citizens view current inequalities?” International Social Justice Project. 2004. Accessed Oct 5, 2015.
[6] Li, Cheng. “China’s Emerging Middle Class.” The Brookings Institution. Accessed October 4, 2015.
 

Peter Loftus is an International Relations Masters student at the Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies.