What Really Matters to President Xi Jinping?

15th December, 2015. The Fix, Shanghai.

What are the core elements of President Xi’s international strategy? How is it different from that of his predecessor’s? What does it mean for you and me? These were some of the questions addressed by Dr. Tiger Zhang, a leading research fellow at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, as a part of the “Thinkery” lecture series in Shanghai earlier this week. Prof. Zhang is keenly engaged in identifying and analysing key trends in East Asian geopolitics and Sino-US relations. From assessing strategic competition between Asian economies to the developing relationships between Taiwan and Latin America, Prof. Zhang is at the forefront of understanding the complex East Asian landscape. His presentation at “Thinkery” concluded a series of talks on the social, economic, and political issues that are transforming Asia in the 21st Century.

Throughout his talk, Prof. Zhang alluded to a number of subtle shifts in the Chinese government’s foreign policy. For instance, he spoke of China’s push for peaceful development from “passively” maintaining peace to actively promoting peace. Let us consider for instance the much advertised “One Belt- One Road” initiative. Although this undertaking has many economic advantages, it speaks to a broader theme of Chinese regional engagement. By soliciting inter-governmental support and building a developmental partnership, China seeks to emerge as a leader in peaceful transnational cooperation. China’s increased contribution to the UN peacekeeping force and stronger stances in the UN Security Council only reinforce President Xi’s resolve to transform China from a reactive to a pro-active regional and international player.

Apart from China’s continuing diplomatic focus on Sino-U.S. Relations, peripheral diplomacy is growing to be China’s primary strategic concern in shaping new relationships with Asia and other parts of the world. Prof. Zhang argues that China’s reliance on the United States to resolve regional conflict is slowly giving way to an independent and self-assured approach. A 2013 CPC Central Meeting on Peripheral Diplomacy in Beijing and economic initiatives such as the AIIB are testament to the high priority of this agenda.

The international community can also expect China to be a strong contributor to developmental initiatives that have a global footprint. As Prof. Zhang puts it, China is moving from “learning & seeking to reforming & giving”. With Chinese pioneering efforts such as the UN post 2030 aid program and leading the charge at the climate change talks, this outcome is all but evident.

In order to truly appreciate the relevance of these strategies, we need to understand the extent of their implications. One potential threat is that of third party-triggered crises. One prime example may be the unrest between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea islands. If the situation does result in a stand-off, what is the US to do but support its ally? Such conflicts may have an unintended, adverse impact on US-China relations, both in the short and long-term.
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Prof. Zhang’s portrayal of Beijing’s international strategies motivates a deeper understanding of the important political and economic trends of our time. Both from a national and individual perspective, understanding and preparing for the potential opportunities or threats that these trends entail may help us better navigate this complex geopolitical environment. The outcomes of theses hypotheses are yet to be discovered. But their importance to our collective progress cannot be ignored. 

Pranav Sridhar is a graduate student in the Master of Management Studies: Duke Kunshan University program.